Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3837 · SMF → DEN
departs 10:45 AM PT · arrives 2:12 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 6%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 8%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.