Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 385
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 385 · PHX → SAN
departs 1:25 PM MT · arrives 2:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 39%
Tue 11/3 39%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.71 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.