Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3896 · COS → PHX
departs 2:26 PM MT · arrives 3:19 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±6 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at COS
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.