Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 390
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 390 · CUN → BNA
departs 2:19 PM EST · arrives 5:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.