WN 3916 · OAK → HNL

departs 1:50 PM PT · arrives 4:04 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3916 · OAK → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?