Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3916
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3916 · SMF → HNL
departs 8:59 AM PT · arrives 11:39 AM HT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29 21%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.