Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3935
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3935 · SMF → LAX
departs 11:57 AM PT · arrives 1:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 6%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.