Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3936 · ABQ → AUS
departs 10:12 AM MT · arrives 1:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.