Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3985 · SNA → AUS
departs 3:16 PM PT · arrives 8:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 7%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.