Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4020 · SNA → SMF
departs 2:09 PM PT · arrives 3:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.07 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.