Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4049
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4049 · STL → CLE
departs 10:17 AM CT · arrives 1:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/29 6%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 8%
Tue 11/3 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.