Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4054
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4054 · STL → DAL
departs 1:21 PM CT · arrives 3:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 8%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.