Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4085 · STL → LGA
departs 3:31 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.