Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4140
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4140 · TPA → AUS
departs 10:06 AM ET · arrives 11:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.