Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4166 · TPA → DEN
departs 5:54 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 35%
Wed 11/4 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.