Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 416 · AUS → SAN
departs 1:39 PM CT · arrives 2:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.