Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4176
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4176 · TPA → MCI
departs 4:16 PM ET · arrives 6:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.