Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4184 · MSY → DEN
departs 1:48 PM CT · arrives 3:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.