WN 4194 · TPA → SAT

departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at TPA that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4194 · TPA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?