Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4218
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4218 · VPS → BNA
departs 1:56 PM CT · arrives 3:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.