Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4225 · SAN → IND
departs 12:47 PM PT · arrives 7:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 34%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.