Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4228 · TPA → PIT
departs 4:36 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.