Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4249
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4249 · TUS → DEN
departs 2:58 PM MT · arrives 5:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.