Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4274 · HOU → SAN
departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 3:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 37%
Wed 11/4 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.