Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4292
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4292 · SBA → SAN
departs 11:09 AM PT · arrives 12:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
11am departures from SBA are usually not late
↓
SBA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.