Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4393
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4393 · CVG → MCO
departs 3:33 PM ET · arrives 5:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.