WN 4413 · OAK → LAS

departs 4:33 PM PT · arrives 6:14 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8677A (B738), coming in as WN 1706 from LGB: landed 3:32 PM PT.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at LAS that day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4413 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?