Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4444
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4444 · TPA → MDW
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.