Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4446
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4446 · AUS → BNA
departs 6:52 AM CT · arrives 9:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/29 4%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 5%
Sun 11/1 8%
Mon 11/2 9%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.