Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4464 · DAL → AMA
departs 3:56 PM CT · arrives 5:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
AMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.