Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4517 · BUR → LAS
departs 1:59 PM PT · arrives 3:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±10 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.