Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4576 · SAN → STL
departs 1:20 PM PT · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 41%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.