Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4602
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4602 · HOU → RDU
departs 3:03 PM CT · arrives 6:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.