WN 4609 · MDW → CMH

took off 6:51 PM CT · expected to land 8:30 PM ET (scheduled 6:42 PM CT → 9:02 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CMH?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ MDW is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

CMH (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4609 · MDW → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?