Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4613 · MDW → OMA
departs 2:04 PM CT · arrives 3:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OMA that day
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.