Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4641 · HOU → MSY
departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 4:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.