Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4662
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4662 · SAN → TPA
departs 8:44 AM PT · arrives 4:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.