Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4705
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4705 · MKE → MDW
departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 7%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.