Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4706
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4706 · MSY → HOU
departs 5:17 AM CT · arrives 6:38 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 2%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 4%
Sun 11/1 5%
Mon 11/2 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
2%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
2%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.