Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4712 · SAN → PIT
departs 10:18 AM PT · arrives 5:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.