Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 473 · SAN → SFO
departs 1:20 PM PT · arrives 2:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.