Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4740 · BNA → RDU
departs 10:21 AM CT · arrives 1:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.