Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4783 · DAL → ELP
departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 2:01 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,767 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.