Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4817 · AUS → SJC
departs 12:09 PM CT · arrives 1:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.