Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4831 · DAL → MSY
departs 10:51 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.