Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4859 · PHX → CLE
departs 12:55 PM MT · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.