Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 4873 · ABQ → MCO
departs 2:21 PM MT · arrives 7:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.