Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4874 · VPS → HOU
departs 12:33 PM CT · arrives 2:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.