Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 487
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 487 · CHS → STL
departs 1:22 PM ET · arrives 2:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from CHS are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.