Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4881
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4881 · BNA → STL
departs 12:33 PM CT · arrives 1:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.